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Wishful Thinking

May 2, 2011

Stephen M. Walt in Foreign Policy:

A realistic foreign policy seeks to deal with the world as it is, shorn of political illusions. Realists emphasize that even close allies often have conflicting interests, that cooperation between states is difficult to achieve or sustain, and that the conduct of nations is frequently shaped by some combination of fear, greed and stupidity.

Above all, realists warn against basing policy on wishful thinking, on the assumption that all will go as we want it to. Yet the pages of history are littered with episodes where leaders made decisions on the basis of false hopes, idealistic delusions, and blind faith. And I regret to say that there’s no shortage of this sort of wishful thinking today. As evidence, here are my “Top 10 Examples of Wishful Thinking in Contemporary U.S. Foreign Policy.”

1. China Won’t Act Like a Great Power

Although most foreign-policy gurus recognize that China’s rising power will have profound effects on world politics, some still assume that a more powerful China will somehow act differently than other great powers have in the past. In particular, they maintain that China will cheerfully accept the institutional arrangements that were “made-in-America” after World War II. They also believe that Beijing will be content to let the United States maintain its current security posture in East Asia, and will not seek to undermine it over time. Maybe so, but that’s not how great powers have acted in the past, and it’s certainly not how the United States behaved during its own rise to world power (remember the Monroe Doctrine?). [More]

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